Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 73662.491961 77848.037276 82038.347014 86545.167006 91252.280401 96020.466990 101212.589470
2025-12-28 67343.075214 73754.795463 80357.138754 87654.517480 95484.591793 103624.497796 112716.748849
2026-01-04 62781.634419 70731.780315 79101.980806 88552.118156 98905.217822 109882.927378 122383.213356
2026-01-11 59094.775148 68185.615983 77936.719157 89142.410986 101631.250339 115089.492594 130655.569288
2026-01-18 55799.156648 65757.260245 76615.425838 89287.947047 103623.607284 119289.042220 137652.101930
2026-01-25 53049.902727 63723.832001 75536.077883 89514.530299 105538.573116 123266.376139 144292.949205
2026-02-01 50471.387642 61714.540651 74328.673307 89448.016751 106991.771984 126620.321231 150151.085819
2026-02-08 48646.007150 60460.416515 73882.756407 90158.696407 109253.049606 130833.567047 156952.683878
2026-02-15 46592.490140 58827.164477 72895.802753 90146.187324 110596.611795 133932.502419 162432.166554
2026-02-22 45424.545370 58180.281430 73009.674891 91376.370207 113355.975516 138653.038969 169797.410378
2026-03-01 44138.294868 57323.293139 72814.889145 92187.990131 115581.822931 142728.003982 176405.530899
2026-03-08 42492.688575 55955.700760 71941.421675 92124.621864 116714.233118 145478.523214 181431.723542
2026-03-15 41086.168630 54845.396733 71352.461742 92389.510662 118241.840627 148719.911586 187091.696207
2026-03-22 40339.813966 54527.588473 71710.786019 93797.163158 121153.256809 153632.914484 194792.821204
2026-03-29 39449.904272 53988.788266 71762.472865 94800.101373 123554.829838 157931.261993 201772.651871
2026-04-05 38444.684402 53261.951425 71543.890549 95436.560624 125484.407586 161649.664633 208059.037861
2026-04-12 37278.396886 52284.351378 70970.675488 95593.244525 126791.756528 164593.068274 213399.255673
2026-04-19 36215.770581 51404.057221 70487.395125 95833.453104 128181.054779 167626.217345 218853.606670
2026-04-26 35074.175539 50381.246796 69786.143512 95763.271143 129153.747118 170128.543895 223649.769874
2026-05-03 34344.503690 49880.383652 69738.069768 96514.693268 131158.667718 173917.682179 230063.326040
2026-05-10 33331.151042 48965.713756 69120.432948 96501.475588 132166.469394 176446.831247 234903.024285
2026-05-17 32905.292636 48831.046536 69515.788412 97801.989235 134863.595855 181116.300062 242462.515159
2026-05-24 32322.736891 48461.716477 69583.568709 98659.912607 136983.689896 185060.790000 249126.808043